Impact of Sukuk Negara Issuance on APBN Deficit Financing and Economic Growth: The Moderating Role of Market Liquidity

Abstract

This study examines the impact of Sukuk Negara issuance on financing the APBN deficit and Indonesia's economic growth, while also considering the moderating effect of market liquidity through a mixed-method approach. This study combines quantitative analysis of 2014-2023 time series data with in-depth interviews with experts. The research methodology has two phases. The quantitative phase employs multiple linear regression and moderation analysis to test the hypothesis, utilizing time series data on the volume of Sukuk Negara issuance, APBN deficit, GDP growth, and market liquidity indicators. The qualitative phase involves semi-structured interviews with four experts, analyzed using the thematic analysis method. The results of the regression analysis indicate that the issuance of Sukuk Negara has a significant positive effect on APBN deficit financing and economic growth. The moderation test confirms that market liquidity significantly moderates the relationship between the issuance of Sukuk Negara and its effectiveness in deficit financing. Thematic analysis of the interviews revealed profound insights into the role of Sukuk Negara in financial system stability and infrastructure financing. The integration of quantitative and qualitative results confirms the strategic role of Sukuk Negara as an instrument for financing the APBN deficit and driving Indonesia's economic growth. This research emphasizes the importance of developing a liquid Sukuk Negara market and diversifying Islamic financial instruments to optimize economic benefits. Policy implications encompass enhancing domestic market capacity, fostering innovation in Sukuk Negara products, and refining the regulatory framework to support sustainable economic growth. This mixed-method approach significantly contributes to the literature by combining quantitative empirical evidence and in-depth qualitative insights, providing a holistic perspective on the role of Sukuk Negara in the Indonesian economy.