Determinan Kenaikan Rasio Utang Indonesia Periode 2012-2019

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Widjanarko Widjanarko

Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguraikan (dekomposisi) variabel penyumbang kenaikan rasio utang terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia tahun 2012-2019 dengan pendekatan debt dynamic. Metode penelitian ini menggunakan model dekomposisi public debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio yang dikembangkan International Monetary Fund/IMF (2013). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel menyumbang kenaikan rasio utang terhadap PDB, meliputi: i) keseimbangan primer negatif karena kenaikan jumlah pengadaan utang), ii) relatif tingginya tingkat bunga riil iii) pelemahan nilai tukar dan iv) Stock Flow Adjustment (SFA). Upaya meminimalisasi penurunan defisit keseimbangan primer tahun 2018 sebesar -0,01% PDBmenjadi sebesar -0.5% GDP di tahun 2019menunjukkan tekad pemerintah untuk menjaga keberlanjutan fiskal.Hal tersebut tercermin dalam relatif kecilnya peningkatan rasio utang terhadap PDB dari 29,98% tahun 2018 menjadi 30.18% PDB tahun 2019.

Article Details

How to Cite
Widjanarko, W. (2020). Determinan Kenaikan Rasio Utang Indonesia Periode 2012-2019. Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara Dan Kebijakan Publik, 5(3), 183 - 191. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v5i3.215
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