Perbandingan Pengujian Capital Asset Pricing Model dan Arbitrage Pricing Theory Analisis Pengaruh Faktor Fundamental Keuangan dan Faktor Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Return Saham di Bursa Efek Jakarta
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Abstract
The purposes of this study are to assess the effect of each risk on stock returns and to investigate the equilibrum model that has a smaller standard error. The verificative type of this research used is to verify the hypothesis through data processing and statistical testing. Research data were obtained from secondary data of Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results show that the markert risk and exchange rate premium variables have significant effects as shown in the hypothesis; on the contrary, the SMB, HML and premium inflation variables are not the determinants of stock returns. Meanwhile, the Mean Average Deviation test has proven that the CAPM has a smaller standard error rate than the APT; nevertheless, the average difference test has shown insignificant different rate. This research suggests that market risk and exchange rate premium factors are the main determinants of investment decision. In addition, to maintain the confidence of the investors, a company should maintain the stability of income because the SMB and HML factors are neglected in the investment decision.
Abstrak
Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengkaji pengaruh masing – masing risiko terhadap return saham serta melihat model keseimbangan mana yang mempunyai standard error yang lebih kecil. Jenis penelitian ini adalah verifikatif yaitu dengan melakukan hipotesis melalui pengolahan data dan pengujian secara statistik. Data penelitian diperoleh dari data sekunder. Dari hasil penelitian, diperoleh hasil bahwa variabel risiko pasar dan premi kurs berpengaruh secara signifikan dan sesuai dengan hipotesis, sedangkan variabel SMB, HML dan premi inflasi bukan determinan return saham. Hasi pengujian lain dengan menggunakan Mean Average Deviation membuktikan bahwa model keseimbangan CAPM mempunyai tingkat standard error yang lebih kecil daripada APT, namun dengan uji beda rata-rata menunjukkan perbedaan yang tidak signifikan. Penelitian ini memberikan masukan kepada investor bahwa faktor yang perlu untuk diperhatikan sebelum melakukan investasi saham adalah dengan lebih memperhatikan faktor risiko pasar dan premi kurs. Sedangkan bagi perusahaan agar tetap mengusahan stabilitas laba untuk menjaga kepercayaan investor, karena faktor SMB dan HML kurang diperhatikan investor dalam mengambil keputusan berinvestasi.
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