Analisis Respon Perbankan atas Dana Repatriasi Program Pengampunan Pajak
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Abstract
Tax Amnesty Program initiated by the government from 2016 to 2017, showed quite encouraging results. Big asset declaration could increase the future tax base, and asset repatriation is also expected to encourage the growth of the economy in the short term. Incoming repatriation funds, as a result of tax amnesty, are expected to have an impact on the financial system, particularly in the banking sector to add liquidity or third party funds (DPK). The research attempts to show the response of banks in the event of an increase in liquidity in the financial system and how government policies and monetary authorities maintain financial system stability after tax amnesty programs or when liquidity fluctuations in the financial system occur. The dynamic linkage of bank indicators is modeled by the Panel-Vector-Autoregressive (p-VAR) framework. The results of the analysis of the bank's response showed that liquidity changes or liquidity fluctuations in the financial system does not significantly affect to Risk Profile indicators, Profitability indicators, Capital Indicators in the banking system. This conditions shows that the financial system, especially the banking system, has a strong fundamental to reduce the liquidity turmoil in the financial system.
Abstrak
Program Pengampunan Pajak yang dilaksanakan pemerintah mulai tahun 2016 sampai dengan 2017 menunjukkan hasil yang cukup menggembirakan. Deklarasi aset yang cukup besar dapat meningkatkan basis pajak di masa yang akan datang. Repatriasi aset diharapkan juga mampu mendorong tumbuhnya perekonomian dalam jangka pendek. Dana repatriasi yang masuk sebagai hasil program pengampunan pajak diharapkan memberikan dampak terhadap sistem keuangan, terutama terhadap sektor perbankan sebagai tambahan likuiditas atau dana pihak ketiga (DPK). Kajian ini mencoba menunjukan respon dari perbankan apabila terjadi pertambahan likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan dan bagaimana kebijakan pemerintah dan otoritas moneter dalam mempertahankan stabilitas sistem keuangan paska program pengampunan pajak atau saat terjadi gejolak likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan. Keterkaitan dinamis antar indikator-indikator bank dimodelkan dalam kerangka Panel-Vector-Autoregressive (p-VAR). Analisis terhadap respon perbankan dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan likuiditas atau gejolak likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan tidak terlalu berpengaruh terhadap indikator Profil Risiko (Risk Profile), indikator rentabilitas/profitabilitas (Profitability), Indikator permodalan (Capital) dalam sistem perbankan. Hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa sistem keuangan terutama sistem perbankan mempunyai fundamental yang kuat untuk meredam gejolak likuiditas dalam sistem keuangan.
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