Analysis of Government Interventions to Address the Impacts of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in West Nusa Tenggara
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ARIMA, Budget Policies, Climate Changes, Climate Change Impacts, Deal ith Climate Change's Impacts, Evidence-based Policy
Abstract
Research Originality — Existing studies on climate change and agriculture primarily focus on the physical impacts and food security outcomes. However, how local governments prioritize budget allocations between mitigation and adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector remains underexplored.
Research Objective — This study aims at evaluating whether the government's budget policy is appropriate in addressing impacts of climate change by focusing the climate change budget only on mitigation budget without allocating a budget for climate change adaptation.
Research Methods — This study adopts a mixed methods approach that integrates both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Many studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector, but studies using forecasting models such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to predict this impact combined with policy evaluation are still rare.
Empirical Results — The forecasting results using the ARIMA (12,1,1) model reveal a continued decline in paddy production in West Nusa Tenggara from 2025 to 2028. Furthermore, it also shows a negative monthly production trend between 2021 to 2024. The evaluation results using the ARIMA model and the large number of cases of drought data and pests indicate that in dealing with climate change in West Nusa Tenggara, the government should not only allocate budgets for climate change mitigation, but also for adaptation to the impacts of climate change.
Implications — The optimal strategy for addressing the impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector require prioritizing a combination of adaptation measures across key areas such as crop management, farming systems, water resources, soil health, and pest control.
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