Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik

Fiscal Sustainability Analysis in Managing State Debt

Dominikus Leonardo — 2024-03-30

To maintain fiscal sustainability when the state budget is in deficit, the government issues debt, which has the potential to burden the state budget. This study examines fiscal sustainability as observed through debt management, which is represented by the primary balance/GDP ratio and the debt to GDP ratio, which is influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, economic growth, inflation, and exchange rate changes. The results of the variance decomposition show that the condition of the primary balance/GDP ratio is a factor that determines changes in the debt to GDP ratio. The results of the impulse response function show that fiscal sustainability occurs when the primary balance/GDP ratio is in surplus so that it can reduce the debt to GDP ratio. Conversely, increasing the debt to GDP ratio can support the primary balance/GDP ratio to achieve a surplus or reduce a deficit. Based on the VAR estimation results, to maintain fiscal sustainability, the government needs to pay attention to four aspects that could affect relative costs, such as economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and changes in exchange rates. Macroeconomic developments need attention because this variable can affect spending quality and debt management in the state budget.

Municipal Sukuk as an Alternative Source of Aceh Development Fund

Muhammad Haris Fadhillah — 2024-03-30

This study explores the understanding of perception of opportunities of issuance, obstacles and strategies towards the development of Municipal Sukuk in Aceh. The research method used is descriptive qualitative, with data collection techniques used including (1) Interviews with Various Stakeholders including local and financial authorities, academia, and regional house of representatives related to the municipal sukuk of Aceh, (2) Documentation conducted through photos and recorders and (3) Triangulation. The study results show that Municipal Sukuk is an Alternative financial instrument to the special autonomy fund, which has a great opportunity for implementation in Aceh. This study also reveals several obstacles, such as Lack of readiness in the Aceh’s local government related to Municipal Sukuk issuance. This study proposes several development strategies that can be carried out, including forming a joint team to accelerate the issuance of Municipal Sukuk, making Municipal Sukuk one of the main topics of MUSRENBANG (Musyawarah Rencana Pembangunan/Development Plan Deliberation), holding scientific discussions and FGDs and increasing the socialization of Municipal Sukuk to various groups. This research carries out novel findings of the purpose of using Sukuk as an alternative to Aceh's development funds. The practical implications of this study are expected to increase awareness of the need for alternative financing as Aceh's development funds.

Peran Dana Alokasi Khusus Fisik Afirmasi terhadap Pembangunan Pendidikan Daerah Tertinggal di Indonesia

Samsul Hadi — 2024-03-30

Indonesia's education statistics show the education gap between regions is still high. This inequality is seen through a comparison of the education index between regions and the disparity in Gross Participation Rate (GER) at the elementary and junior high school at the district/city per province in 2020. This study examines how the development of the education sector in underdeveloped areas after the policy of providing affirmative Physical Special Allocation Fund (SAF) field of education. Using 3-year panel data, the results of the study show that the affirmative Physical Special Allocation Fund (SAF) field of education has a positive and significant impact on the development of the basic education sector (SD and SMP), this is evidenced by its significant impact on APK. The performance of regional financial management through the number of SiLPA/SiKPA proxies has an impact on the achievement of education sector development in underdeveloped areas, the greater the number of SiLPA/SiKPA it can have a negative impact.

Kepatuhan Pajak Perusahaan Terbuka Modal Asing berdasarkan Laporan Keuangan Wajib Pajak

Jefry Rentje Durand Mantiri — 2024-03-30

Taxes are the largest source of state revenues to finance the public expenditures. However, since 2010 the tax revenue target has never been achieved. This is partly due to the low level of tax compliance. For this reason, it is necessary to audit the submitted SPT. This study analyzes the factors in the Financial Statements that can be indicators in determining audit priorities. The data used are SPT data and audit results for the 2015-2019 Fiscal Year, with a sample of 87 PMA companies listed on the IDX until 2015. This study uses panel data regression method with random effect model. The results of the study found that in determining the prioritized WP PMA in the audit, DGT needs to pay attention to indicators, namely: WP with large ROA and DER. In addition, WP PMA in the manufacturing sector can also be an indicator of priority audit.

Model Perencanaan Kas Pemerintah Pusat Menggunakan Metode ANFIS dan ARIMA: Studi pada Satuan Kerja Wilayah Bayar Provinsi DKI Jakarta

Ibnu Pujiono — 2024-03-30

This study aims to compare performance of central government cash planning model using ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) methods. The data used is the balance of realization unscheduled expenditure in the Province of DKI Jakarta within period 2015 to 2019 with a total of 48 datasets used as training data and 12 datasets for data checking. This research was conducted by comparing the performance of models in prediction using the RMSE (root mean square error) value generated by each model as the basis for evaluation. Data processing is assisted by the Eviews application to generate ARIMA models and Matlab applications for ANFIS models. The conclusion is that the ARIMA model has a better performance compared to ANFIS with a data timeframe of 60 datasets which results in a smaller RMSE value. The implication of this research is that the use of the ARIMA method can be used effectively on small datasets (short term) and the use of the ANFIS and ARIMA methods to predict budget realization balances can be applied to the Directorate General of Treasury as the manager of the state treasury to support data-based policies.

Digitalisasi Penyelenggaraan Bansos: Studi Tentang Strategi dan Tantangan di Indonesia

Teguh Dwi Prasetyo — 2024-03-30

This study aims to identify the challenges of social assistance implementation in Indonesia, to know whether the digitalization of social assistance can answer these challenges, and to determine the willingness for the digitalization of social assistance. The analysis used in this research is qualitative descriptive analysis, quantitative descriptive and comparative study. The data used in this study are secondary data from the March 2021 SUSENAS and OMSPAN, as well as primary data from surveys on readiness for digitalization of social assistance in five cities with a total of 340 respondents. This research found that the challenges of implementing social assistance programs in Indonesia come from institutions, data, program fragmentation, distribution and utilization of social assistance. The efforts to digitize social assistance can overcome these challenges; however, the willingness towards digitizing social assistance is still constrained by the absence of the pre-condition for the success of digital transformation of social assistance.